Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：创业研究)

• ·火币网pro
• ·股票限价交易-股票限价交易规则
• ·比特币是在计算什么 比特币是在计算什么时候的
• ·拯救 WBTC？Curve 与 Synthetix 等参与支持的签名奖池活动能否成功？
• ·Robinhood 提议联邦代币化框架，瞄准30万亿美元代币化市场
• ·蝴蝶币价格
• ·交易平台排名 世界8大虚拟货币 交易平台排名
• ·高盛最新分析：应对“股债双杀”困境，黄金成避险首选
• ·币安Alpha上线MERL并开启交易竞赛活动
• ·Bitfinex 報告：若比特幣市占比達局部頂點，山寨幣在未來幾個月表現或優於大盤
• ·交易平台排名 世界8大虚拟货币 交易平台排名
• ·Bitget 研究院：美比特币 ETF 七天净流出 10.15 亿美元，避险情绪持续加重建议观望
• ·中国大陆抄币软件_前十虚拟币平台排名合集
• ·越南首都叫什么-越南首都叫什么名字
• ·火币app苹果版
• ·门罗币什么显卡好 门罗币用cpu还是gpu